Is global warming forcing lobsters north?

FRIENDSHIP, Maine -- It's summer on Maine's coast, but thismorning, Philip Bramhall pulls on a hooded fleece shell with hisrubber overalls to heave 50-pound lobster traps around his boat'sdeck.

He doesn't mind the early chill and wet fog. Lobsters like cold,and Bramhall likes lobsters.

Maine's lobstermen have been hauling up phenomenal numbers foralmost 15 years. Their 62.3 million pounds in 2002 set a record --triple the typical catch in the 1980s. That's more than $200 millionworth of lobster and by far the dominant share of the Northeast'smost valuable fishery. But can it last?

Starting in the late 1990s, in the southern reaches of its near-shore commercial range, the big-clawed American lobster has beenwithering at an alarming rate from New York state to Massachusetts.Signs of decline have crept as far north as the southern Gulf ofMaine, the edge of the country's lobster mother lode.

Finding an explanation has been a problem. Government biologistshave said the lobster is overfished off the Northeast, but thatdoesn't account for Maine's extravagant abundance. Researchers haveblamed the trouble on diseases, pollutants and predators. But thatfails to explain any larger pattern.

In recent months, however, a scientific consensus has begun tocongeal. It centers on global warming. The theory holds that warmingis already killing off the American lobster in its southern near-shore range, where it lives near its heat tolerance. In Maine, whereit is well within its comfort zone, more warmth -- up to a point --may be making it proliferate.

If temperatures rise too high, though, even Maine may ultimatelyturn less hospitable to lobster, some researchers say. Last year'sstate catch fell back almost 14 percent, to 53.9 million pounds.

For the five years ending in 2002, the surface waters off Bostonwere more than 2 degrees warmer than their historical averages,according to government data. In recent summers, some waters offsouthern New England have warmed into the low 70s, the upper limit ofwhat lobsters can tolerate, researchers say.

This spring, about 60 lobster researchers brainstormed in Groton,Conn. They agreed that, perhaps more than any other single factor,warming water seems to account for the lobster's decline, severalparticipants say.

"We're hoping our cold water will keep it to the south because somuch of our economy is dependent on lobstering," says Pat White, CEOof the Maine Lobstermen's Association and an overseer of the fisheryfor a committee of northeastern states. "If it hit us, it'd be adisaster."

AP